Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 0.302800 0.348947 0.399156 0.457760 0.524201 0.597105 0.683074
2025-07-13 0.244854 0.307134 0.380192 0.471909 0.583638 0.714974 0.880682
2025-07-20 0.195145 0.265138 0.353232 0.471532 0.625425 0.817928 1.075942
2025-07-27 0.160974 0.236083 0.337157 0.481761 0.681706 0.946535 1.321575
2025-08-03 0.134566 0.212464 0.324231 0.494034 0.742664 1.089952 1.607363
2025-08-10 0.105706 0.179758 0.293037 0.475676 0.758535 1.174542 1.825344
2025-08-17 0.081795 0.149737 0.260445 0.449605 0.758894 1.236802 2.019955
2025-08-24 0.066383 0.130379 0.241088 0.440843 0.784349 1.339856 2.289663
2025-08-31 0.054083 0.113794 0.223277 0.431469 0.807151 1.441475 2.570261
2025-09-07 0.046612 0.104583 0.216766 0.440638 0.862748 1.603827 2.970823
2025-09-14 0.037508 0.090017 0.197492 0.422919 0.867497 1.679599 3.232968
2025-09-21 0.031231 0.079919 0.185011 0.415994 0.891013 1.791156 3.571390
2025-09-28 0.025410 0.069633 0.170613 0.403748 0.904605 1.890492 3.908547
2025-10-05 0.022307 0.065043 0.167703 0.415355 0.968407 2.094102 4.468822
2025-10-12 0.018899 0.058770 0.159670 0.414252 1.005555 2.250425 4.957134
2025-10-19 0.016543 0.054678 0.156038 0.422727 1.065139 2.460367 5.579318
2025-10-26 0.014613 0.051253 0.153379 0.433131 1.130875 2.691737 6.273660
2025-11-02 0.011915 0.044665 0.140901 0.416517 1.130701 2.780697 6.676546
2025-11-09 0.009492 0.038124 0.126957 0.393196 1.110308 2.821784 6.979864
2025-11-16 0.007961 0.034075 0.119238 0.385256 1.127283 2.950705 7.495422
2025-11-23 0.006673 0.030442 0.111879 0.376828 1.141612 3.075136 8.015095
2025-11-30 0.005950 0.028714 0.110175 0.384806 1.201471 3.317528 8.840404
2025-12-07 0.004872 0.025120 0.101335 0.369082 1.192980 3.388670 9.260445